10 Jun June 2024 Real Estate and Mortgage Report

The overwhelming majority of prospective homebuyers believe that buying a home, now or in the future, is the best decision for them in the long run. While it’s easy to get pre-occupied with interest rates, they shouldn’t be the only part of your home buying decision-making process.

Insights

“Astonishingly, greater than 90 percent of the country’s metro areas experience home price growth despite facing the highest mortgage rates in two decades . . . In the current market, rising prices are the direct result of insufficient housing supply not meeting the full demand.
Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist, NAR

“Buy now, or wait? That’s the question prospective homeowners have been struggling to answer in today’s housing market. Home prices have been skyrocketing recently, and the Federal Reserve’s work to tame inflation sent mortgage rates soaring, too. The combination has led many would-be buyers to pick the “wait” side of the equation.
Bankrate

Forecasts

Zillow’s forecasts of home values and existing home sales were both revised downward this month. Zillow’s home value forecast now anticipates 0.6% growth over 2024, down from last month’s projection for 1.9% growth over 2024 and much slower than the pre-pandemic average annual appreciation rate of around 5%. Over the next 12 months, Zillow forecasts home values to decline by 0.9%. – Zillow

Rates

“Expect more rate volatility ahead as the Fed and investors wait for more conclusive evidence of a return to low, stable and more predictable inflation,” said Zillow. The positive impact of higher rates is an improvement in inventory.

“After two years of higher mortgage rates, sellers are slowly coming back into the market. We’ll continue to have gradually more sellers,” said -Mike Simonsen, CEO and Founder, Altos Research

Affordability

“Home buyers face the most difficult affordability conditions in nearly 40 years,” said Deputy Chief Economist & VP of Research, NAR, Jessica Lautz. Affordability is the culmination of wages, mortgage rates and home prices. Homes are considered affordable when housing costs are less than 30% of the household income.

Inventory

Inventory continues to improve. According to Realtor.com, “sellers continued to list their homes in higher numbers this May as newly listed homes were 6.2% above last year’s levels. While a notable deceleration from last month’s 12.2% growth rate, it marks the seventh month of increasing listing activity after a 17-month streak of decline.”

Prices

According to The Mortgage Reports, “with the continued imbalance between supply and demand, home prices are expected to keep rising.” Meanwhile, According to the Realtor.com®, “May housing data, the market cooled a bit as mortgage rates went up in April and May due to stubborn inflation. While the median list price nationwide stayed the same as last year, homes did see a price increase per square foot.”

Sales

Why are new listings up year-over-year? “The lock-in effect is easing a bit as the initial mortgage rate shock recedes in the rearview mirror, and as some sellers come to terms with the fact that their life circumstances have changed, and sub-4% mortgage rates aren’t returning anytime soon. Additionally, some newbie investors who piled into the market during the boom are realizing that being a landlord isn’t easy,” said Lance Lambert, Co-Founder, ResiClub.

More Charts…

Do you love housing data? Whether you are a real estate expert or just learning about the market, this is the housing data to know. Enjoy 50+ charts illustrating the key metrics for the month.

Monthly Housing Market Report (PDF)